SUBSTANCE OVER FORM THEORY
Personally, I have never been particularly fond with game stats, be it possession, shots, saves, passing percentages and all that jazz. While many sites and Twitter accounts are purely dedicated to stats, I’ve never been really too into stats.
…..but why?
To put it simply, it’s because while it does allow certain conclusions to be drawn, it doesn’t reflect the true nature of particular aspects of the game. By that, I mean that stats speak, but not on the game in its entirety and definitely not on its specifics.
I’m an accounting student myself, taking up a professional certificate course. In accounting and auditing, we learn something called “substance over form”. It’s internationally-recognised definition is “an accounting concept where the entity is accounting for items according to their substance and economic reality and not merely their legal form. What it means in lay-man terms is basically to disclose information based on what is happening in reality rather than what is seen on paper.
Now how does this relate to football? Really simple. A team can just keep playing safe, short-distance passes around their own half. While getting high percentages in possession. By looking at that particular game’s stats, you’d think that they were “dominating” and “taking the game to the opposition” when in fact, they aren’t.
Since I’m a Liverpool fan, I’ll continue examples with the use of Liverpool players to demonstrate. Keep in mind, it’s all about looking at the reality of it rather than pure numbers.
Joe Allen is a good example, bought by Liverpool for a fee of around £15 million, is very known for having one of the highest pass completion percentages in the league (surpassing 90% if I’m not wrong). To be frank, I’ve never really seen much of Joe before he was linked with Liverpool, and of course by looking at those stats, one would want him at any club.
After watching a few games of Joe’s during the 2012 Summer Olympics as well as his performances in Liverpool, it becomes clear to me why he has such a high percentage of passing completion. Majority of his passes were either to the back, or parallel passes, and on top of that, most are relatively passes of short distances.
Now of course I’m not going to throw numbers for you to read, but it’s clear why Joe Allen can achieve that feat, and it’s simply because most of his passes are easily executed. That is an example of “substance over form”. On paper, his 90+% passing rate is phenomenal, but watch his game in its entirety, and the reality speaks for itself.
Speaking of passing, Steven Gerrard, the club’s Captain Fantastic, has been a man often slated for his less-than-normal displays, while many question his passing accuracy, often times losing possession by executing his passes.
But again, substance over form. Take a step back and think about what kinds of passes he makes – diagonal balls to open play, over-the-top through balls, defence-splitting through balls on the ground, and so on. Now compare these passes with short passes, which levies a higher risk of losing the ball, but at the same time, which carries a higher potential of being a rewarding pass? I’m sure the answer speaks for itself.
Another example would be Andy Carroll. While many praise him for his aerial capabilities, winning headers more than losing them, does anyone actually see where the ball ends up AFTER it gets contact with his head? There are times when he does direct the ball towards goal or towards the feet of teammates, but there are definitely more times when he has headed the ball and end up clueless as to where the ball actually is.
There are times when stats can be the same as the game in reality, for example Arsenal’s passing percentages reflecting their fluid, free-form style of play, or a high number or aerial duels won by a Stoke team focusing on long-ball tactics and having target men upfront. But how often do these happen?
This theory and application of substance over form can apply to basically any team and any player. Luis Suarez may have had 10 goals this season, but how many shot attempts has he actually taken? Wayne Rooney, one of the league’s most consistent scorers in recent years – how many goals from penalties contributed to his tally? Possession stats, how much time was actually used up by passing the ball around the back four?
Compare two strikers with 20 goals each – one with dazzling displays of dribbling before scoring , and another just scoring open goal tap-ins. Who would be a better player disregarding the amount of goals as both are equal in that department?
It’s hard to make out a game by looking at stats alone, because they are just for reference and comparison, but never truly reflect the game and the performance as a whole. Now, I’m not saying stats are “rubbish”, or should be ignored, or “useless”. All I’m saying is, stats are mere numbers, good for reference, good for getting a rough idea of any game, but more often than not, actually observing a player has more credibility.
I’m not here to slate any players, or to upset any fans. I’m just here, writing this article because I feel that there is an overdependence on stats to reflect how good or bad a player is or isn’t. There are times when stats reflect pretty accurately to a player/team’s performance in reality, but there are also times when it doesn’t.
Again, I cannot emphasise this enough. This article isn’t to slate, bash, criticise or insult anyone, be it players, or the fans and it is one that is sure to stir up controversy, debate, agreement and disagreement. However, the contents that you have read above is purely the views and opinion of my own, so feel free to have yours. This isn’t an article to draw final conclusions, but rather to work up the mind and to allow everyone to have a conclusion of their own.
So, do pure stats affect your judgement, or do you look at the performance as a whole? Do you agree with the substance over form theory, or do you disagree? That, I leave it to you.
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